AMERICANLEGACYMAG – United States Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump as she prepares to appear at the Democratic National Convention, polls show.
Ahead of the convention in Chicago, Harris was leading by between three and six percentage points in the race for the White House, according to two polls on Sunday, August 18, 2024, as reported by Al Jazeera .
The poll results show a dramatic shift in the Democratic Party, just five weeks since US President Joe Biden dropped his bid for the nomination and passed the baton to Harris.
Very Strong US Presidential Candidate
Harris, now the party’s presumptive nominee, heads into the Democratic National Convention on a historic high: her campaign has broken fundraising records, packed arenas with supporters, and turned polls in several battleground states into Democratic victories.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — have turned “joy” into a campaign buzzword, a reminder of the despair the party felt just weeks ago. Both will publicly accept their party’s nomination at its convention in Chicago that begins Monday, Aug. 19, 2024.
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“This is a historic transformation,” said Joseph Foster, a 71-year-old former chairman of the Democratic Party in suburban Philadelphia who is still active in the party, as quoted by Reuters . “People are excited, young people are involved. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
With less than 80 days until Election Day, the party is hoping to ride that wave of enthusiasm to victory.
This would make Harris, the first Black and Asian person to serve as vice president, the nation’s first female president.
But There Is Potential For Setbacks
But pollsters and strategists from both major parties warn that the “sugar high” of Harris’ early surge will wear off, leaving Democrats divided on issues like the economy and the Israel-Hamas war and a bitter battle against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Harris’ historic personal story is “beautiful and beautiful, but the issues that will ultimately define this election are inflation, security, leadership and the world stage,” predicted Republican spokesman Adam Geller.
Harris delivered her first economic-focused speech Friday, laying out proposals to cut taxes for most Americans, ban “price gouging” by wholesalers and boost affordable housing, an early nod to the party’s progressive wing.
Possibility of stumbling over important issues
He will face growing public pressure to provide more policy details in the coming weeks. Aides have signaled that he is unlikely to provide many details in areas such as energy to avoid alienating the moderate and progressive wings of his party.
Harris may also have to navigate intra-party squabbles over U.S. support for Israel’s war against Hamas and familiar divisions between progressives and moderates on policy questions such as energy, health care and immigration.
About 200 social justice organizations plan to march at the Democratic National Convention on Monday to protest the Biden administration’s continued support for Israel in a war that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza.
New Map to Victory
Reuters reported that Harris had managed to shift the electoral map from favoring Trump in the final weeks of Biden’s candidacy. However, several recent polls have shown a different result.
Harris leads or is tied with Trump in six of the seven swing states expected to decide the Nov. 5 election, according to a new report released Wednesday from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
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Election speculators shifted their ratings for the states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada toward Harris after moving all three states to “leaning Republican” in early July when Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
“I think what we have is a re-run of the race where the Democratic candidate has now reinvigorated, or at least re-formed, the 2020 Biden coalition, not completely, but much more unified than when Biden was at the top,” said Amy Walter, Cook’s editor, on a call detailing the poll’s findings.
Biden’s withdrawal changes poll results
Biden won the White House in 2020 with strong support from Black, Hispanic and young American voters, but their enthusiasm for him this time around is far lower.
He ultimately resigned on July 21, under pressure from longtime allies and senior Democratic leaders amid growing concerns about his mental acuity and chances of defeating Trump.
Biden endorsed Harris and she quickly won the party’s support. The shift quickly reframed the race, giving Democrats a boost and forcing the Trump campaign to scramble for a new battle plan.
A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday found a substantial surge in enthusiasm among registered Democratic voters and a sizable surge among independents.
In June, just 46% of Democratic voters said they were excited about a rematch between Biden and Trump — that number jumped to 85% in the latest Monmouth survey conducted earlier this month.
The surge in enthusiasm among independent voters rose from 34% in June to 53% in the latest poll.
However, Walter said concerns over immigration and the economy helped Trump this time after he lost his own election to Biden in 2020.
“It’s like a coin toss,” he said of the race between Harris and Trump.